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Just for fun, I
went on the web and look to compare the rate of improvement for human to the
rate of improvement for integrated circuits.
Since human brain cell hasn’t shrunk for millions of years, the cranial size is a good indication of
the computing power, if the quality of the brain cell is assumed to be
constant.
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“Lucy”, widely
considered the first “human”, has a cranial size of 380 cc and live
approximately 4 million years ago.
<click> I then plot the cranial size of some of the other human species against
the time they live, all the way to ourselves, homo sapiens, <click>
with an average cranial size of 1400 cc.
I obviously have to plot it on a linear scale because otherwise it will be pretty flat.
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If you work out
the math, human cranial size double historically at a rate of once every 2.08
million years. <click> So to
solve a design problem that is doubled in size due to Moore’s law, the theory
of evolution says that the only thing we have to do is to wait 2.08 million
years, there will then be an Intel designer with head twice as big and with
sufficient cranial power to effectively design a chip with twice the
transistors.
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