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CS269: HW/SW Engineering of Embedded Systems, Winter02
What Future May Bring
•Take the average, let’s say doubling every 18 months
•By the year 2016, each high-end IC will have
–9 billion transistors, 7100 pins, 22 nm feature size, on-chip local clock of 29GHz, Vdd range 0.4V to 0.9 V, power dissipation at 288 W.
Anyway.  So what does it looks like from here.

Semiconductor Industry Association is a consortium consists of all the big players up and down the semiconductor food chain: IBM, HP, Intel, Motorola and international players like Sony, Philips, TSMC.   They put out an “International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors”.  In which they point out the technology trends based on Moore law, market force, and technology challenges.

Among other thing, it predicts that by the year 2014, a high-end IC will have between 5 to 12 billion transistors, compare to today’s Pentium IV at 42 million transistors, 4000 to 9000 pins, 1 order of magnitude more than Pentium IV,  30nm feature size, compare to state of the industry at 180nm today.  On-chip local clock at 15 GHz.  Vdd range from 0.3V to 0.6V, and power dissipation at a whopping 200W.

5 billion transistors, that’s a lot of transistors…